Alphabet (GOOG): Quick Valuation Update

Here’s the level where GOOG turns into a buy

Today I looked at Alphabet through two different financial models, and they came back with completely opposite verdicts.

First, I ran a statistical model, specifically a Monte Carlo simulation built on two years of price action, and that one looks borderline euphoric. But then I ran a cash-flow model using a three-scenario DCF, and it tells a very different story, suggesting that the current price already sits above the bull case.

When momentum and value disagree this loudly, my VMP framework is actually very clear about which metric rules the day. I always use momentum to get a name onto the watchlist, but valuation is what decides the actual entry point. When I look closely at the valuation, Alphabet looks like a wonderful business that is asking you to pay full price for flawless execution you haven’t even seen yet.

Let me walk you through the work.